Tomorrow evening, the highly anticipated National Hockey League’s (NHL) 2025 4 Nations Face-Off kicks off at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The round-robin style tournament features the best NHL players from the United States (U.S.), Sweden, Finland and Canada.
Each of the four teams is littered with all-stars and future hall-of-famers, yet Canada’s group of skaters still stands out as the strongest of them all. With players like Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar leading the way, it’s hard to believe that any of the other teams can match Canada’s top-end talent.
They’ve also got plenty of depth to back up the top six. Players like Brandon Hagel, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett and Mark Stone can kill penalties and shut down any opponent’s top line, all while chipping in with goals and being a threat in the offensive zone.
Canada’s defenseman crop lags behind Sweden and the U.S., but Cale Makar and Devon Toews will make up the best pairing at the tournament. Their chemistry playing together with the Colorado Avalanche will prove invaluable and expect Canada to dominate when the duo is on the ice together.
With that much talent amongst the skaters and home ice for the group stage games, analysts and betting sites list Canada as the favorite of the tournament. However, Canada falls short at the most important position — goaltender. Washington’s Logan Thompson has been a shutout machine this year, but he was a surprise snub from the roster. Without Thompson, Canada is left with Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault in net. Yikes.
Binnington is expected to start, but he won’t inspire confidence for fans of the maple leaf. The hot-headed goaltender is currently having one of the worst seasons of his career statistically, and he’s never been able to recapture the magic he had when he first broke into the NHL in 2019.
Hill and Montembault have struggled to maintain a save percentage above .900 and have been wildly inconsistent this season. This is a huge cause for concern as the U.S, Sweden and Finland can each boast a perennial Vezina candidate between the crease. With each individual game of utmost importance, goaltending will play an especially large role at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Canada will play their final group stage against Finland on Feb. 17 at the TD Garden in Boston, but they’ll host Sweden and the U.S. before that at the Bell Centre. Many people are pointing to home ice as a huge advantage for the Canadians.
While Canada possesses some of the most passionate hockey fans in the world, this also puts immense pressure on the players wearing the maple leaf. At the moment, Canadian fans are displeased with the nation’s past two performances at the U-20 World Junior Championships.
In each of those tournaments, the U-20 Canadian team finished in fifth place, the first time Canada had missed the podium in back-to-back World Juniors. The 2025 tournament in January was especially disastrous for Canada.
First, they shockingly lost to Latvia in the round-robin as the fans started to turn on their own players and criticized them for not playing together. This clearly weighed on Canada’s best young players and it contributed to their losses to the U.S and Slovakia.
With this embarrassment on the international stage fresh on everyone’s mind, there will be an extra layer of pressure on the senior Canadian team to not just win, but also dominate the 4 Nations Face-Off.
As Canada struggles to meet expectations, the U.S. will remain as the standalone favorite. The States have a forward group that can rival Canada’s, and their blueline as a whole are better. But their main edge over the rest of the competition is in net.
Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck will be in between the sticks for the red, white and blue. Hellebuyck is currently playing the best hockey of his career. He’s on track to win his third Vezina trophy, but his play will earn some recognition for the Hart trophy as well. Hellebuyck can downright win a game on his own and he makes the States the team to beat.
Meanwhile, Finland is bringing the grittiest and defensive team to the 4 Nations Face-Off. They’ll give their opponent headaches, but they lack the offensive firepower to win the tournament. Also, losing defenseman Miro Heiskanen to a knee injury really hampers their blueline.
Sweden’s strengths, on the other hand, start on the blueline. Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Dahlin are brilliant puck movers, while Victor Hedman and Mattias Ekholm bring physicality and defensive solidity.
Leaving out San Jose Sharks duo William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund was a bit of a head-scratcher, but the Swedish forwards still bring an abundance of skill while still playing a strong 200-foot game. And with Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark in net, Sweden is bringing a balanced roster with no glaring holes.
On Feb. 20 at the TD Garden, the U.S will face Sweden for the gold medal of the 4 Nations Face-Off. For Canada, this tournament will go down as another disappointment. Their combination of weak goaltending and having the weight of a nation on their shoulders will be too much for a team littered with franchise players throughout the lineup.
After the 4 Nations Face-Off, even the most die-hard Canadian fans will have to face the reality that the rest of the world is catching up to them.
