Heading into an election year, Senate Democrats face an uphill battle to keep their majority. They barely held on to the Senate in the 2022 midterms when Democrats outperformed polling expectations. Even then, the party barely maintained Senate control, with Catherine Cortez Masto defeating Adam Laxalt in Nevada by fewer than 8,000 votes. The Senate map in 2022 was unfavorable for Democrats, but the 2024 map is significantly more difficult.
Currently, Republicans have 49 seats, and Democrats have 48 seats, plus three independents who caucus with the Democrats. Republicans only need to pick up two seats in the upper house to win back control. This can be done by either picking up two or more seats directly or picking up one seat and winning Senate control by having the Republican presidential candidate win the presidential election since the Vice President can break ties in the Senate. At this time, all of the incumbent Republicans running for re-election are in safe red states, and the Republican National Committee does not have to allocate resources to defend incumbent seats.
Two other Democrats are representing conservative states. One is Sen. Sherrod Brown from Ohio, which has been trending to the right over the course of the past decade. If conservatives are smart, they’ll nominate a moderate Republican who doesn’t publicly entertain fringe conspiracy theories. This will give Republicans a good chance at taking down Sen. Brown. Democrats have fewer options.
With Sen. Joe Manchin announcing that he will not seek another term, this is a gut punch to Democratic strategists. Even though Manchin infuriated many liberals for being a powerful thorn in the progressive agenda, it is worth considering the fact that he represents the conservative state of West Virginia. Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in that state by over 35 points in 2020. Manchin had to make compromises between both Democrats and Republicans to remain as an elected official. Even though Manchin frustrated many Democrats, he was a better political option for the party than a Republican alternative. With him not seeking another term, Republicans are essentially guaranteed to gain that West Virginia Senate seat.
The second Democrat representing a conservative state is Sen. Jon Tester from Montana. This rural state has been traditionally conservative with roughly 62% of Montanans saying they are Republicans or at least lean Republican. It is a miracle that Sen. Tester could thread the needle to win enough approval as a Democrat to represent that state to be with.
The last Senate race worth directly mentioning is Arizona’s. What makes this specific race very unusual is that the state’s current Senator, Kyrsten Sinema, was a Democrat who recently left the party to be an independent when it became clear Sinema would not survive a primary. The incoming Arizona Democratic nominee for 2024 will take on Kyrsten Sinema and a Republican contender simultaneously, splitting the vote to the disadvantage of the Democratic Party.
If, miraculously, Republicans somehow fail to make gains on any of these seats listed above, many races are still within the party’s reach. This includes races in battleground states like Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania and an open seat in the state of Michigan. It’s pretty clear that after Joe Manchin announced that he won’t run for a second term, Democrats now have no margin for error. Anything short of complete perfection for the Democratic Party means that come Jan. 3, 2025, Republicans will once again retain their Senate majority.
